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This paper is structured in three parts. The first part outlines the methodological steps, involving both theoretical and empirical work, for assessing whether an observed allocation of resources across countries is efficient. The second part applies the methodology to the long-run allocation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010796707
This paper provides a theoretical framework for quantitatively investigating the optimal accumulation of international reserves as a hedge against rollover risk. We study a dynamic model of endogenous default in which the government faces a tradeoff between the insurance benefits of reserves and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821884
While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and financial markets, what can account...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821917
In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821965
We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is … a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an … shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196763
The large, persistent fluctuations in international trade that can not be explained in standard models by changes in expenditures and relative prices are often attributed to trade wedges. We show that these trade wedges can reflect the decisions of importers to change their inventory holdings....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010785629
This paper explores implications of non-separable preferences with home production for international business cycles. Home production induces substitution effects that break the link between market consumption and its marginal utility and help explain several stylized facts of the open economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010569814
We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about eight years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6 ½ years. Five to six years after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969301
International financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may increase the trans- mission of crises across countries. We provide a quantitative analysis of this trade-off in a two-country general equilibrium model with endogenous portfolio choice and collateral con- straints....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950927
in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because … shock leads to a greater withdrawal of dollar funding. Banks can borrow in euros and swap into dollars to make up for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010592551