We analyze the pattern of growth of a nation which borrows abroad and which has the option of repudiating its foreign debt. We show that the equilibrium strategy of competitive lenders is to make the growth of the foreign debt contingent on the growth of the borrowing country. We give a...

This paper presents a theoretical model to describe the effects of default risk on international lending to LDC sovereign borrowers. The threat of defaults in international lending is shown to give rise to many characteristics of the syndicated loan market: (1) quantity rationing of loans; (2)...

If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which then becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot be confident that the unaided market will choose the good equilibrium' over...

We suggest that the geographical patterns of income differences across the world have deep underpinnings. We emphasize that economic development is a complex process driven by economic, political, social, and biophysical forces. Some economists have argued that the patterns reflect mainly the...

Are smarter machines our children's friends? Or can they bring about a transfer from our relatively unskilled children to ourselves that leaves our children and, indeed, all our descendants - worse off? This, indeed, is the dire message of the model presented here in which smart machines...

Do robots raise or lower economic well-being? On the one hand, they raise output and bring more goods and services into reach. On the other hand, they eliminate jobs, shift investments away from machines that complement labor, lower wages, and immiserize workers who cannot compete. The net...

This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings of the MSG2 simulation model of the world economy. The MSG2 model is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy which pays particular attention to the relation between stocks and flows and intertemporal constraints. The formation of...

The search for "growth-oriented adjustment programs" reflects a widespread malaise concerning IMF stabilization programs in countries suffering from external debt crises. A new orthodoxy is emerging from this search, which links recovery in the debtor countries to a shift to "outward-oriented"...

This paper uses a global macroeconomic simulation model to identify the factors that have contributed to global trade and financial imbalances in the 1980s. After investigating the properties of monetary and fiscal policies in the model, we examine whether the budgetary shifts in the OECD...

This paper offers a theoretical framework for studying the inter-actions of energy prices and economic growth. The incorporation of energy prices and quantities in a macroeconomic setting focuses on (1)the aggregate technology; (2) the interdependence of energy producers and consumers in the...