Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 764
Cover Image
The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets
Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo L. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
There is a demand for safe assets, either government bonds or private substitutes, for use as collateral. Government bonds are safe assets, given the government's power to tax, but their supply is driven by fiscal considerations, and does not necessarily meet the private demand for safe assets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969335
Cover Image
Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits
Farmer, Roger E. A. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs …-fulfilling. The paper reconciles Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory without invoking the assumption of frictions that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720521
Cover Image
The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle
Siu, Henry E.; Jaimovich, Nir; Pruitt, Seth - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
The employment and hours worked of young individuals fluctuate much more over the business cycle than those of prime-aged individuals. Understanding the mechanism underlying this observation is key to explaining the volatility of aggregate hours over the cycle. We argue that the joint behavior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005775183
Cover Image
The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection
Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005
This paper develops a new analysis of the U. S. economy in the 1920s that is illuminated by contrasts with the 1990s, and it also re-examines the causes of the Great Depression. In both the 1920s and the 1990s the acceleration of productivity growth linked to the delayed effects of previously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005088780
Cover Image
News Shocks
Barsky, Robert B.; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
We implement a new approach for the identification of "news shocks" about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027105
Cover Image
Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow
Beber, Alessandro; Brandt, Michael W.; Luisi, Maurizio - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We propose a simple cross-sectional technique to extract daily factors from economic news released at different times and frequencies. Our approach can effectively handle the large number of different announcements that are relevant for tracking current economic conditions. We apply the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010775233
Cover Image
Assessing DSGE Model Nonlinearities
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Schorfheide, Frank; Bocola, Luigi - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969293
Cover Image
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
Dating business cycles entails ascertaining economy-wide turning points. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches in the literature. The first approach, which dates to Burns and Mitchell (1946), is to identify turning points individually in a large number of series, then to look for a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727872
Cover Image
DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment
Boivin, Jean; Giannoni, Marc P. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006
Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption … that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation … empirical framework for the estimation of DSGE models that exploits the relevant information from a data-rich environment. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005714295
Cover Image
Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset
Faust, Jon; Wright, Jonathan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
Many recent papers have found that atheoretical forecasting methods using many predictors give better predictions for key macroeconomic variables than various small-model methods. The practical relevance of these results is open to question, however, because these papers generally use ex post...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828664