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Aruoba, S. Boragan; Schorfheide, Frank; Bocola, Luigi - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969293

Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP2011: Why are the Results so Different?

Deaton, Angus; Aten, Bettina - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Purchasing power parity exchange rates, or PPPs, are price indexes that summarize prices in each country relative to a numeraire country, typically the United States. These numbers are used to compare living standards across countries, by academics in studies of economic growth, particularly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268048

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk

Hansen, Lars Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

This paper explores two perspectives on the rational expectations hypothesis. One perspective is that of economic agents in such a model, who form inferences about the future using probabilities implied by the model. The other is that of an econometrician who makes inferences about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005775165

To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out

Schorfheide, Frank; Wolpin, Kenneth I. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

: randomized controlled trials (RCT) and structural estimation. The RCT provides a "gold-standard'' estimate of a particular … treatment, but only of that treatment. Structural estimation provides the capability to extrapolate beyond the experimental … out from the structural estimation exercise either the treatment or control sample allows for external validation of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010822002

Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound

Robinson, Tim; Stone, Andrew - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005

We use a simple model of a closed economy to study the recommendations of monetary policy-makers, attempting to respond optimally to an asset-price bubble whose stochastic properties they understand. We focus on the impact which the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates has on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078618

Fiscal Devaluations

Farhi, Emmanuel; Gopinath, Gita; Itskhoki, Oleg - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

We show that even when the exchange rate cannot be devalued, a small set of conventional fiscal instruments can robustly replicate the real allocations attained under a nominal exchange rate devaluation in a dynamic New Keynesian open economy environment. We perform the analysis under...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652818

Public Consumption Over the Business Cycle

Bachmann, Ruediger; Bai, Jinhui - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

What fraction of the business cycle volatility of government purchases is accounted for as endogenous reactions to … frictionless version of such a model with aggregate productivity as the sole driving force can explain almost all the volatility of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223328

Expectation Traps and Discretion

Chari, Varadarajan; Christiano, Lawrence; Eichenbaum, Martin - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1996

-decreasing volatility in output and employment. We refer to the latter type of equilibria as expectation traps. In effect, our paper …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718503

The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuation

Reis, Ricardo - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005

While this is typically ignored, the properties of the stochastic process followed by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper pursues two approaches to modelling aggregate consumption dynamics and to measuring how much society dislikes fluctuations,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829338

Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets

Atkeson, Andrew; Phelan, Christopher - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1994

In this paper, we measure the potential welfare gains from counter-cyclical policy in an economy with incomplete markets. In the course of conducting this measurement, we focus on two questions as central to the determination of those potential gains: (1) what is the likely effect of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005778538

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