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Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War
Glick, Reuven; Taylor, Alan M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005
Conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade. We study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870. Using the gravity model, we estimate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005777720
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China's Embrace of Globalization
Branstetter, Lee; Lardy, Nicholas - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006
As China has become an increasingly important part of the global trading system over the past two decades, interest in … the country and its international economic policies has increased among international economists who are not China … economists who are exploring China-related issues, either in the classroom or in their own research. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005830773
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The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China
Taylor, Alan M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
moderate the perceived need for insurance, and China would have to loom large in both solutions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951079
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Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?
Chinn, Menzie; Frankel, Jeffrey Alexander - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005
Might the dollar eventually follow the precedent of the pound and cede its status as leading international reserve currency? Unlike ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro. This paper econometrically estimates determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084571
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The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939
Taylor, Alan M.; Estevadeordal, Antoni; Frantz, Brian - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2002
Measured by the ratio of trade to output, the period 1870 1913 marked the birth of the first era of trade globalization and the period 1914 39 its death. What caused the boom and bust? We use an augmented gravity model to examine the gold standard, tariffs, and transport costs as determinants of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084724
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Strategic Trade, Competitive Industries and Agricultural Trade Disputes
Bagwell, Kyle; Staiger, Robert W. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2000
The primary predictions of strategic-trade theory are not restricted to imperfectly-competitive markets. Indeed, these predictions emerge in a natural three-country extension of the traditional theory of trade policy in competitive markets, once the theory is augmented to allow for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005085109
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Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation
Aizenman, Joshua - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
This paper illustrates the paradox of prudential under-regulation in an economy that adopts financial reform, a reform which exposes the economy to future financial crises. There is individual-uncertainty about the crisis incidence, and the probability of the crisis is updated sequentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025653
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Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence
Limão, Nuno M.; Handley, Kyle - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that policy uncertainty can significantly affect firm level investment and entry decisions in the context of international trade. When market entry costs are sunk, policy uncertainty can create a real option value of waiting to enter foreign markets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652877
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Reserves and Baskets
Bordo, Michael David; James, Harold - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
We discuss three well known plans that were offered in the twentieth century to provide an artificial replacement for gold and key currencies as international reserves: Keynes' Bancor, the SDR and the Ecu( predecessor to the euro).The latter two of these reserve substitutes were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009328104
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Global Macroeconomic and Financial Supervision: Where Next?
Goodhart, Charles - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
The overriding practical problem now is the tension between the global financial and market system and the national political and power structures. The main analytical short-coming lies in the failure to incorporate financial frictions, especially default, into our macro-economic models. Neither...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395475