The recent literature on the duration of trade has predominantly analyzed the determinants of trade flow durations using Cox proportional hazards models. The purpose of this paper is to show why it is inappropriate to analyze the duration of trade with continuous-time models such as the Cox...

This paper proposes a discrete-time hazard regression approach based on the interrelation between hazard rate models and excess over threshold models, which are frequently encountered in extreme value modelling. The proposed duration model incorporates a grouped-duration analogue of the...

In the existing literature, the duration of trade has typically been analyzed using either descriptive Kaplan-Meier methods or a Cox regression approach. While the latter has the advantage of allowing for explanatory variables, it is designed for the analysis of continuous duration times,...

We provide new evidence on the causal mechanisms reflected in the intergenerational transmission of human capital. Applying both an adoption and a twin design to rich data from the Swedish military enlistment, we show that greater parental education increases son's cognitive and non-cognitive...

Multi-state transition models are widely applied tools to analyze individual event histories in the medical or social sciences. In this paper we propose the use of (discrete-time) competing-risks duration models to analyze multi-transition data. Unlike conventional Markov transition models,...

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, against the background of an existing empirical literature on the duration of trade which has found that international trade is often of strikingly short duration, we aim to establish whether or not EU imports from the rest of the world also are...

Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962-2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the...

The cross-section average (CA) augmentation approach of Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran et al. (2013), and the principal components-based panel analysis of non-stationarity in idiosyncratic and common components (PANIC) of Bai and Ng (2004, 2010) are among the most popular “second-generation”...

The use of factor-augmented panel regressions has become very popular in recent years. Existing methods for such regressions require that the common factors are strong, such that their cumulative loadings rise proportionally to the number of cross-sectional units, which of course need not be the...

This paper proposes a simple residual based panel CUSUM test of the null hypothesis of cointegration. The test has a limiting normal distribution that is free of nuisance parameters, it is robust to heteroskedasticity and it allows for mixtures of cointegrated and spurious alternatives. Our...