Bache, Ida Wolden; Mitchell, James; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - Norges Bank - 2009
We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology … from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …