The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied mediumterm inflation target for the US economy are … driver for inflation (e.g., Galì et al., 2001, 2003). The turning points of the business cycle are nevertheless broadly … consistent with those of CBO/NBER. We find considerable variation in the natural rate of interest while the inflation target has …

, e.g., Christiano et al. 2005 and Woodford 2005). We formulate a generalized (S,s) pricing and investment model which is …

framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a … value added in predicting inflation. The multivariate measures of the output gap have by far the best predictive power. This … predicting inflation. As uncertainties are particularly pronounced at the end of the calculation periods, assessment of pressures …

We investigate optimal horizons for targeting inflation in response to different shocks and their properties under … alternative preferences of an inflation-targeting central bank. Our analysis is based on a well specified macroeconometric model … inflation and output. Successful inflation targeting in such cases may require a complex interest rate response. The optimal …

We consider standard monetary-policy rules with inflation-rate targets and interest-rate or money-growth instruments …-target equilibria (BTE) with inflation always below target and constant asymptotically approaching or eventually reaching a below … rate above a lower bound. We construct monetary-policy rules that preclude BTE, some which are monotonic in inflation but …