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Using the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391592
On the basis of data from the Historical Monetary Statistics-project by Norges Bank, the present paper serves a threefold purpose. In the first place it gives an overview of financial crisis in Norway from her independence from Denmark in 1814 till present times. Secondly, historical business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391593
This paper analyses the causes of banking crises by the way of a historical comparative case study. Moreover, the analysis draws on theories elaborated by the economist Hyman Minsky. The evidence presented suggests that the fundamental causes of the compared crises are found in the macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835421
According to a Keynesian view, short term output fluctuations are normally demand side led. Since prices reflect demand, they should mirror output fluctuations. Thus, prices and output are expected to move in the same direction in the short run. The present paper investigates the historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472024
The National Monetary Commission was deeply concerned with importing best practice. One important focus was the connection between the money market and international trade. It was said that Britain’s lead in the market for “acceptances” originating in international trade was the basis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876205
Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock … forecasting context. While none of the methods clearly emerges as best, some techniques turn out to be useful to improve the … forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905649
In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian's index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277157
benchmarks in terms of point and density forecasting. The gains are particular high when the full distribution is predicted and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009292070
The development of models for variables sampled at di¤erent frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835415
. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for … and data to be used in the forecasting process. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005481434