from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …

Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock … forecasting context. While none of the methods clearly emerges as best, some techniques turn out to be useful to improve the … forecasting performance. …

volatility specifications, in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree. …

-of-sample forecasting experiment. Our results show that exploiting the informational content in a common global business cycle factor … improves forecasting accuracy in terms of both point and density forecast evaluation across a large panel of countries. In line … earlier in the evaluation sample. However, this time is different also in other respects. On longer forecasting horizons the …

-varying parameter specification in density forecasting. …

-of-sample forecasting exercise, focusing on the last recession, we show that univariate Markov-switching models applied to surveys and a …

provides the most reasonable definition of business cycles. The forecasting exercise, where the models are augmented with …