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New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008465073
Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock … forecasting context. While none of the methods clearly emerges as best, some techniques turn out to be useful to improve the … forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905649
benchmarks in terms of point and density forecasting. The gains are particular high when the full distribution is predicted and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009292070
The development of models for variables sampled at di¤erent frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835415
This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of day-ahead electricity prices substantially, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005481438
Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight attached to other independent models may be lower than warranted by their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472023
from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976646
An approximate dynamic factor model can substantially improve the reliability of real time output gap estimates. The model extracts a common component from macroeconomic indicators, which reduces errors in the gap due to data revisions. The model's ability to handle the unbalanced arrival of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063099
volatility specifications, in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787777
the forecasting process. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008620609