This paper investigates a long-run relation for the trade weighted NOK exchange rate. I find that the NOK Trade Weighted Index (TWI) cointegrates with the real oil price, the price differential and the real interest differential. The paper documents a long-run solution for the TWI. The paper’s...

We define and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...

The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...

We estimate a range of New Keynesian import price models for Norway and the UK. Contrary to standard pass-through regression analysis, this approach allows us to make a distinction between the parameters in theoretical price-setting rules and parameters in the expectations mechanisms. We find...

In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...

We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of Norwegian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the business cycle indicator. The...

This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to address the question: are structural VAR estimates of exchange rate pass-through a useful tool to evaluate macroeconomic models of open economies? The data generating process is a small open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through. The results...

Does a "one model fits all" approach apply to the econometric modeling of regional house price determination? To answer this question, we utilize a panel of 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period 1980q1-2010q2. For each area we estimate a separate cointegrated VAR model, focusing...

We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and in ation, and evaluate dfferent combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We use linear and logarithmic opinion pools in conjunction with various...