The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

of these models by monetary policymakers. In this paper, we combine inflation forecast densities utilizing an ensemble … (for short horizons) provided the VAR components exclude structural breaks. In this case, the inflation forecast densities … produces well-calibrated forecast densities for inflation. …

We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting … inflation with an ensemble DSGE. …

framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a … value added in predicting inflation. The multivariate measures of the output gap have by far the best predictive power. This … predicting inflation. As uncertainties are particularly pronounced at the end of the calculation periods, assessment of pressures …

Empirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input … permanent shifts in the markup factor through estimating an inflation equation that includes a time-varying intercept. The model …