Independent States (CIS). To this effect, we apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model and go beyond existing work by …

We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR … density into its marginals and a copula term capturing the dependence structure across countries. The GVAR outperforms … structure across countries, whereas the GVAR does not yield better predictive marginal densities. The relative performance gains …