exchange rate regime yields a lower loss compared to an inflation targeting policy, even if this policy ranking would be …-maker to adopt inflation targeting over a strict exchange rate targeting regime. Full credibility is not a precondition, but … exposure to foreign and financial shocks and high steady state inflation make joining the EMU relatively more attractive for a …

future inflation in Germany. Based on a multivariate term structure framework, a vector error forecasting equation for … inflation forecasts of up to two years is constructed. The results of the alternative error correction reveal that the level of … the shortterm interest rates conveys much more information on future inflation than the yield curve spreads. In particular …

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, as a structural model of inflation dynamics, has mostly been used to explain past … inflation developments, but has hardly been used for forecasting purposes. We propose a method of forecasting inflation based on …-of-the-art time series models used in inflation forecasting we employ a Bayesian VAR, a traditional VAR and a simple autoregressive …

1990 and 2001. The paper starts with an analysis of the short-term and long-term (dis)inflation dynamics. This is …

out of sample forecasts of Austrian HICP inflation and its subindices processed food, unprocessed food, energy, industrial … goods and services price inflation. A sequential forecast model selection procedure tailored to this specific task is … to forecasting HICP inflation, our analysis suggests to favor the aggregation of subindices forecasts. Furthermore, the …

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of VAR and ARIMA models to forecast Austrian HICP inflation …. Additionally, we investigate whether disaggregate modelling of five subcomponents of inflation is superior to specifications of … headline HICP inflation. Our modelling procedure is to find adequate VAR and ARIMA specifications that minimise the 12 months …