The effects of stochastic future oil prices on optimal oil extraction paths and optimal tax, spending and government debt policies are analyzed when demand for oil is linear and preferences quadratic. Without prudence, optimal oil extraction is governed by the Hotelling rule and optimal...

Intergenerational funds smooth expected consumption across generations in face of an oil windfall. Precautionary buffers or liquidity funds cope with oil price volatility and are a politically more acceptable alternative to hedging. The magnitude of these buffers depends on the volatility of oil...