In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the non-linear dynamics of 7 real effective exchange rates, defines for the recent floating period. The so-called real exchange rate -real interest rate model is exploited in a novel way to define the thresholds.

Central to an understanding of how foreign exchange markets work is the nature of the expectations formation process. Of particular interest are the potentially stabilising of destabilising nature of these expectations. In this paper we use a unique disaggregate expectations data base to model...