There are two principal theories of why countries trade: comparative advantage and increasing returns to scale. Yet there is no empirical work that assesses the relative importance of these two theories in accounting for production structure and trade. We use a framework that nests an increasing...

This paper provides a set of forecasts of United States international trade in services, both at the aggregate level and for four subcategories. These sectors are: travel, which is mostly tourist expenditures; passenger fares, which is mostly passenger air transportation; transportation, other...