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In this paper, we develop a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a simple commodity sector and assess whether forecasts from this model can be improved by using it as a prior for an empirical Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR). We treat the world economy as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815229
they may be useful for forecasting. We find, however, that when currently available economic information is appropriately … surveys all provide some, albeit small, contribution to forecasting employment growth. The second question of both consumer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125139
This paper examines the contribution leading indicators can make to forecasting measures of real activity in Australia …. In a policy context, we are interested in forecasting the levels or growth of policy relevant variables throughout the … cycle. We are less interested in forecasting turning points in the cycle or in forecasting coincident indices, which are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423668
This paper estimates a small structural model of the Australian economy, designed principally for forecasting the key … foundations, which are often used for forecasting, the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (BVAR … prior information for the VAR. The forecasting performance of the model is competitive with benchmark models such as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423675
This paper demonstrates that factor-based forecasts for key Australian macroeconomic series can outperform standard time-series benchmarks. In practice, however, the advantages of using large panels of data to construct the factors typically comes at the cost of using less timely series, thereby...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005398652
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