surveys all provide some, albeit small, contribution to forecasting employment growth. The second question of both consumer … they may be useful for forecasting. We find, however, that when currently available economic information is appropriately … confidence surveys (which asks about anticipated personal financial conditions over the coming year) also appears to have some …

information about inflation expectations – that survey measures of expectations are inconsistent with rational expectations, but … less so for financial markets than households; that actual and expected inflation interact with each other; and that the … foreign exchange market anticipates tighter monetary policy when inflation is higher than expected. The second half of the …

Ball and Sheridan (forthcoming) show that OECD countries with a history of high inflation before the 1990s have … subsequently experienced a larger degree of disinflation than countries with a history of low inflation. They label this process … ‘regression to the mean’, and argue that it explains why those OECD countries which adopted inflation targeting experienced larger …