The terms of trade of commodity-producing small open economies are subject to large shocks that can be an important source of economic fluctuations. Alongside times of high volatility, however, these economies also experience periods in which their terms of trade are comparatively stable. We...

This paper studies the effect of a shock to resource prices in a small open economy where the stock of natural resources is responsive to exploration activity, and where extraction reduces the future availability of reserves. We show that the effects of a resource price shock on resource...

Kehoe and Perri (2002) show that a two-country business cycle model with endogenously incomplete markets helps to resolve the 'international co-movement puzzle' (Baxter 1995) and the 'quantity anomaly' (Backus, Kehoe and Kydland 1992, 1995). We claim that a similar performance can be achieved...

The terms of trade are subject to both permanent and transitory shocks. Particularly for commodity-producing small open economies, it is sometimes argued that the inability of agents to determine which of these shocks are permanent and which are transitory leads to more macroeconomic volatility...

We use a structural vector autoregression model to characterise the aggregate and industry effects of exchange rate movements on the Australian economy. We find that a temporary 10 per cent appreciation of the real exchange rate that is unrelated to the terms of trade or interest rate...

This paper explores the effect of terms of trade volatility on macroeconomic volatility using a panel of 71 countries from 1971–2005. It finds that terms of trade volatility has a statistically significant and positive impact on the volatility of output growth and inflation, although the...

Expectations of the future play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy. Over recent years, a lot of theoretical and applied macroeconomic research has been based on the assumption of rational expectations. However, estimated models based on this assumption typically fail to capture...

The Australian economy has proven resilient to sizable exchange rate fluctuations over the post-float period. In part this can be attributed to financial institutions and non-financial firms learning to adapt to swings in the Australian dollar. This has included the increased use of financial...

The correlation of Australian output with that of the OECD, and the United States in particular, has been well documented. This paper explores foreign linkages by looking at the production side of the national accounts for Australia and the United States, which is often characterised as the...

This paper investigates the merits of aggregate inflation targeting compared with non-traded inflation targeting using a model of a small open economy producing traded and non-traded goods. An important innovation of our approach is that we isolate the effects of exchange rate, supply and demand...