This paper develops an empirical model of the cross-country variation in bilateral output growth correlations for 17 OECD countries. Consideration is given to the role played by explicit mechanisms for transmitting shocks between countries, such as trade in goods and financial assets and the...

Two remarkable features of the Australian economy over recent years have been strong growth in private consumption expenditure and household wealth. This paper examines the relationship between consumption and wealth in an effort to better understand aggregate consumption behaviour. We find a...

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy in Australia using a small structural vector autoregression model. The model we use is a modification of the small open economy model developed for the G6 economies (the G7 less the United States) by Kim and Roubini (1999). The success of the...

This paper examines the contribution leading indicators can make to forecasting measures of real activity in Australia. In a policy context, we are interested in forecasting the levels or growth of policy relevant variables throughout the cycle. We are less interested in forecasting turning...