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Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy
Brouwer, Gordon de; Ellis, Luci - Reserve Bank of Australia - 1998
Whether people form their expectations of the future in a model-consistent or extrapolative manner, has implications … information about inflation expectations – that survey measures of expectations are inconsistent with rational expectations, but … the public believes the bank will adhere to. When inflation expectations differ between groups, the <em>ex ante</em> real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423502
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Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Some Lessons from an Open Economy
Debelle, Guy; Wilkinson, Jenny - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2002
In an open economy inflation-targeting framework, whether policy-makers should target aggregate or non-traded inflation depends on the structural relationships in the economy. This paper shows that in a small empirical model of the Australian economy, it makes little difference which measure is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423601
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Issues in Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change
Kulish, Mariano; Pagan, Adrian - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2013
Structural change has been conjectured to lead to an upward bias in the estimated forward expectations coefficient in … particular, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable in the New …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815236
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Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes
Kulish, Mariano; Pagan, Adrian - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2012
Standard solution methods for linearised models with rational expectations take the structural parameters to be … agents' beliefs when forming expectations, and whether the structural changes are known in advance. The solutions can be put …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815241
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Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia
Ryan, Chris; Thompson, Christopher - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2000
Several recent papers have explored the possibility that inflation-targeting central banks in small open economies pay too much attention to exchange rate fluctuations; changing short-term interest rates in response to fluctuations that have transient effects on inflation could be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005398639
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Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation
Debelle, Guy - Reserve Bank of Australia - 1999
Inflation targeting has been criticised for being ‘inflation only’ targeting and hence, for ignoring output and employment. This paper argues that this criticism is misplaced. The inflation-targeting framework has sufficient flexibility to allow for the short-run trade-off between output and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005232563
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Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy
Bharucha, Nargis; Kent, Christopher - Reserve Bank of Australia - 1998
-looking expectations, gradual exchange rate pass-through, and discretionary policy. In order to avoid excessive volatility in product and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423544
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Real-time National Accounts Data
Stone, Andrew; Wardrop, Sharon - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2002
Quarterly national accounts data are amongst the most important and eagerly awaited economic information available, with estimates of recent growth regarded as a key summary indicator of the current health of the Australian economy. Official estimates of quarterly output are, however, subject to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125145
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Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?
Kent, Christopher; Smith, Kylie; Holloway, James - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2005
The decline in output volatility in a number of countries over the past few decades has been well-documented, though less agreement has been reached about the causes of this decline. In this paper, we use a panel of data from 20 OECD countries to see if there is a role for various indicators of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423569
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The Effect of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy: How Good are the Brakes?
Debelle, Guy; Cagliarini, Adam - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2000
In practice, monetary policy changes tend to produce a smooth path for interest rates while the path of policy interest rates generated by models is often considerably more variable. This paper investigates whether the inclusion of uncertainty can help reconcile the theory to the practice. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423612