We use a structural vector autoregression model to characterise the aggregate and industry effects of exchange rate movements on the Australian economy. We find that a temporary 10 per cent appreciation of the real exchange rate that is unrelated to the terms of trade or interest rate...

The Australian economy has proven resilient to sizable exchange rate fluctuations over the post-float period. In part this can be attributed to financial institutions and non-financial firms learning to adapt to swings in the Australian dollar. This has included the increased use of financial...

The terms of trade are subject to both permanent and transitory shocks. Particularly for commodity-producing small open economies, it is sometimes argued that the inability of agents to determine which of these shocks are permanent and which are transitory leads to more macroeconomic volatility...

This paper studies the effect of a shock to resource prices in a small open economy where the stock of natural resources is responsive to exploration activity, and where extraction reduces the future availability of reserves. We show that the effects of a resource price shock on resource...

Expectations of the future play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy. Over recent years, a lot of theoretical and applied macroeconomic research has been based on the assumption of rational expectations. However, estimated models based on this assumption typically fail to capture...

The correlation of Australian output with that of the OECD, and the United States in particular, has been well documented. This paper explores foreign linkages by looking at the production side of the national accounts for Australia and the United States, which is often characterised as the...

This paper investigates the merits of aggregate inflation targeting compared with non-traded inflation targeting using a model of a small open economy producing traded and non-traded goods. An important innovation of our approach is that we isolate the effects of exchange rate, supply and demand...

This paper examines the sources of Australia’s business cycle fluctuations. The cyclical component of GDP is extracted using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and a structural VAR model is identified using robust sign restrictions derived from a small open economy model. In contrast to...

Standard trade theory suggests that internationalisation of an economy should lead to increased competitive pressures and an improvement in the efficiency with which domestic goods are produced and priced. We examine a number of ways in which the pricing behaviour of the Australian manufacturing...