This paper presents some theory and evidence on the implications of sudden currency depreciations for output and inflation. It identifies some of the characteristics shared by countries which have suffered falling output in the aftermath of a currency crisis, and it presents a small model which...

This paper describes the Australian banking system, highlighting ways in which it differs from other major banking systems. It draws together themes from previous work conducted at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and outlines the role the banking system plays in the transmission of monetary...

We use a simple model of a closed economy to study the recommendations of monetary policy-makers attempting to respond optimally to an asset-price bubble whose stochastic properties they understand. We focus on the impact which the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates has on the...

This paper examines the costs borne by financial institutions, merchants, and consumers in making, facilitating and accepting consumer-to-business payments. It examines the resource costs incurred by these sectors, how these have changed since 2006, and how fees and other transfers determine...

Credit risk – the risk that borrowers will not repay their loans – is one of the main risks that financial intermediaries face, and has been the underlying driver of most systemic banking crises in advanced economies over recent decades. This paper explores the <i>ex post</i> credit risk experience...

Tiering occurs when an institution does not participate directly in the central payment system but instead settles its payments through an agent. A high level of tiering can be a significant issue for payment system regulators because of the increased credit and concentration risk. This paper...

This paper examines the overall variability of Australian banks’ credit risk during the 1990s. It assesses the extent to which this overall variability can be explained by variability in the level of banks’ aggregate credit risk over time, or alternatively, by variation in the average credit...

The likelihood of a bank failing, within a given period of time, is a function of the variability in its income and its ability to withstand losses. These determinants depend, in turn, on the volatility of the return on bank assets and the bank’s level of capital. Although accounting measures...

Over the past decade value at risk (VaR) has become the most widely used technique for the quantification of market-risk exposure. VaR is a measure of the potential loss that may occur from adverse moves in market prices (interest rates, exchange rates, equity prices and so forth). The capacity...

The proposed market-risk capital-adequacy framework, to be implemented at the end of 1997, requires Australian banks to hold capital against market risk. A fundamental component of this framework is the opportunity for banks to use their value-at-risk (VaR) models as the basis of the market-risk...