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. These include the distinction between the short and long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment, and the changing … level of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), particularly in the 1970s. We estimate Phillips curves … discussion of the changing role of the Phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the Reserve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005426716
Ball and Sheridan (forthcoming) show that OECD countries with a history of high inflation before the 1990s have … subsequently experienced a larger degree of disinflation than countries with a history of low inflation. They label this process … ‘regression to the mean’, and argue that it explains why those OECD countries which adopted inflation targeting experienced larger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423647
prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008565770
include that a positive output gap would be less inflationary, but the cost of reducing inflation, once established, would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005232576
This paper presents a small model of the Australian macroeconomy. The model is empirically based, aggregate in nature and consists of five estimated equations – for non-farm output, the real exchange rate, import prices, unit labour costs and consumer prices. The stylised facts underlying each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125144
Almost a decade ago David Gruen and Geoff Shuetrim constructed a small macroeconomic model of the Australian economy. A comprehensive description of this model was subsequently provided by Beechey <em>et al</em> (2000). Since that time, however, the model has continued to evolve. This paper provides an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423570
bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates has on the recommendations of such policy-makers. For a given target inflation rate … face in practice. We also examine the implications of the ZLB for policy-makers’ preferences as to their inflation target … neutral real interest rate is low. Such policy-makers should also set a higher target inflation rate if the economy’s natural …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423553
The decline in output volatility in a number of countries over the past few decades has been well-documented, though less agreement has been reached about the causes of this decline. In this paper, we use a panel of data from 20 OECD countries to see if there is a role for various indicators of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423569
Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets up a model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market together with standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of the economy more efficiently, while taking into account that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423572
The output gap – the difference between actual and potential output – is widely regarded as a useful guide to future inflationary pressures, as well as an important indicator of the state of the economy in its own right. Since the output gap is unobservable, however, its estimation is prone...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005426698