In this paper, we develop a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a simple commodity …

economists despite their limited success as leading indicators. In this paper we ask what explains ‘sentiment’ and find that … they may be useful for forecasting. We find, however, that when currently available economic information is appropriately … surveys all provide some, albeit small, contribution to forecasting employment growth. The second question of both consumer …

This paper examines the contribution leading indicators can make to forecasting measures of real activity in Australia …. In a policy context, we are interested in forecasting the levels or growth of policy relevant variables throughout the … cycle. We are less interested in forecasting turning points in the cycle or in forecasting coincident indices, which are …

This paper estimates a small structural model of the Australian economy, designed principally for forecasting the key … foundations, which are often used for forecasting, the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (BVAR … prior information for the VAR. The forecasting performance of the model is competitive with benchmark models such as a …

This paper demonstrates that factor-based forecasts for key Australian macroeconomic series can outperform standard …