In this paper we use a range of statistical models to forecast New Zealand house price in ation. We address the issue of model uncertainty by combining forecasts using weights based on out-of-sample forecast performance. We consider how the combined forecast for house prices performs relative to...

Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealand's economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar. If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory...

This paper addresses the real-time versus ex-post properties of the output gap as quantified by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's multivariate (MV) filter, starting with the second quarter of 1997, when the current procedure was implemented. There are three sources of revisions of the output...

This paper presents three satellite models for the Forecasting and Policy System (FPS). Satellite models are used to disaggregate the projections generated by the core model into a more detailed profile. The household expenditure, exports, and business investment satellite models disaggregate...

This paper extends the `Five Area Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rate' (FABEER) model used in Wren-Lewis (2003) to include New Zealand and Australia. This model calculates medium term exchange rates conditional on assumptions for `sustainable' current accounts. The model suggests that the...

This paper reviews the literature on applications of state- space modelling to macroeconomic questions, with four examples related to modelling unobserved trends, transition across different steady states, expectations formation and forecasting/data revision issues. Due to the flexibility of the...

This paper investigate whether a small open economy DSGE-based New Keynesian model can provide a reasonable description of key features of the New Zealand economy, in particular the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The main objective is to design a simple, compact, and transparent tool...

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy's level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We...

The New Zealand Treasury and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand both maintain and use comprehensive macroeconomic models of the New Zealand economy: NZM and FPS respectively. In this paper, shocks are applied to the two models to illustrate and compare their dynamic properties. The most notable...

In this paper, measures of the uncertainty surrounding estimates of New Zealand's potential output are used to consider whether the output gap is a useful concept for the monetary authority to base policy actions on. The analysis relies on stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New...