Forecasting the future path of the economy is essential for good monetary policy decisions. The recent financial crisis has highlighted the importance of tail events, and that assessing the central projection is not enough. The whole range of outcomes should be forecasted, evaluated and...

This paper documents the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's current approach to dealing with structural change, an important feature of New Zealand's recent macroeconomic history after the profound economic reforms undergone in the past twenty years. Traditional estimated macroeconomic models of New...

This paper provides evidence that the relationship between inflation and money growth has changed as the inflation-targeting regime has progressed. During the disinflation period (mid 1980s to mid or late 1991) the correlation between inflation and money aggregates was fairly consistent with the...