Many economic models (such as the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC) include expected future values, often estimated after replacing the expected value by the actual future outcome, using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Moments. Although crises, breaks and regime shifts are...

We study the workings of the factor analysis of high-dimensional data using arti…cial series generated from a large, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The objective is to use the DSGE model as a laboratory that allow us to shed some light on the practical...

A weighting scheme is proposed to construct a new index of environmental quality based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for different countries using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance (SD) efficiency. The benchmark is an index that is based on the average...

imports and exports and asymmetries in the adjustment of the US current account over the study period 1960Q4-2007Q2. We find evidence in favour of cointegration through the application of the standard Johansen methodology. Employing the Trace test procedure recursively, two distinct regimes are...

The recent financial crisis has raised numerous questions about the accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR) as a tool to quantify extreme losses. In this paper we present empirical evidence from assessing the out-of-sample performance and robustness of VaR before and during the recent financial crisis...

This study conducts an investigation into the sustainability of the Indian current account over the study period 1950-2003. It is argued that a necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. After testing for unit roots that allow for a...

An optimal weighting scheme is proposed to construct a new index of environmental quality for different countries using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency. The test statistics and the estimators are computed using mixed integer programming methods....

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also...

We examine a recent set of high-frequency spot EUR-USD foreign exchange transaction data from an electronic foreign exchange market. Our framework is based on a continuous time-sequential microstructure trade model that measures the market makers beliefs directly. We present evidence of the...

Fundamental spot exchange rate models preclude the existence of asymmetric information in foreign exchange markets. This article critically investigates the possibility that private information arises in the spot foreign exchange market. Using a rich dataset, we first empirically detect...