In a model of incomplete, heterogeneous information, with externalities and strategic interactions, we analyze the possibility for learning to act as coordination device. We build on the framework proposed by Angeletos and Pavan (2007) and extend it to a dynamic multiperiod setting where agents...

The book is divided into five parts. The essence of behavioural finance is presented in the first parts. Fuzzy generalizations of some mathematical concepts are presented in the second part. The impact of selected behavioural premises for imprecise estimation of expected return is described in...

This paper approaches the problem of knowledge accumulation by the management team of organizations, but specially that ones focused on obtaining profit in order to obtain competitive advantage. After a brief presentation of the general context, the idea of continuing learning as investment is...

The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first consequence of the principle: the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones; conversely, the real values of low probabilities can be higher...

The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the...

This work analyses the implications, in terms of determinacy and E-stability of equilibrium, of a policy rule that responds to private sector expectations in forward looking models. In the literature, this type of policy has been both recommended and criticized. We try to understand the reasons...

Exploration is a costly activity that helps a business improve their understanding of a potential mineral deposit. Yet, even with strong exploration results, the business faces uncertainty over the value of the mine. I model this situation as a game of chance. The game starts by giving an agent...

Using data from a randomized experiment in rural China, this paper studies the influence of social networks on weather insurance adoption and the mechanisms through which social networks operate. To quantify network effects, the experiment offers intensive information sessions about the...

Abstract Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit multiple priors. In an ambiguous scenario with two underlying states we measure a subject’s single prior, her other potential...

In this paper we investigate how cognitive ability influences behavior, success and the evolution of play towards Nash equilibrium in repeated strategic interactions. We study behavior in a p-beauty contest experiment and find striking differences according to cognitive ability: more cognitively...