Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a wide range of forecast horizons and allow for estimated as...

This paper addresses the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the empty boxʺ category, as discussed in Granger (1999). We present ex ante forecasting evidence based on an updated version of the absolute returns series examined by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) that suggests...

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection,...

We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare "true" joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished...

In the conduct of empirical macroeconomic research, unit root, cointegration, common cycle, and related test statistics are often constructed using logged data, even though there is often no clear reason, at least from an empirical perspective, why logs should be used rather than levels....

This Chapter discusses estimation, specification testing, and model selection of predictive density models. In particular, predictive density estimation is briefly discussed. And a variety of different specifications and model evaluation tests due to various authors including Christoffersen and...

This paper analyzes the conditions under which consistent estimation can be achieved in instrumental Variables (IV) regression when the available instruments are weak, in the local-to-zero sense of Staiger and Stock (1997) and using the many-instrument framework of Morimune (1983) and Bekker...