Showing 1 - 10 of 11
This paper addresses the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the empty boxʺ category, as discussed in Granger (1999). We present ex ante forecasting evidence based on an updated version of the absolute returns series examined by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) that suggests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002432981
In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001848639
We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare "true" joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001848913
In the conduct of empirical macroeconomic research, unit root, cointegration, common cycle, and related test statistics are often constructed using logged data, even though there is often no clear reason, at least from an empirical perspective, why logs should be used rather than levels....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001848931
This Chapter discusses estimation, specification testing, and model selection of predictive density models. In particular, predictive density estimation is briefly discussed. And a variety of different specifications and model evaluation tests due to various authors including Christoffersen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002432791
This paper analyzes the conditions under which consistent estimation can be achieved in instrumental Variables (IV) regression when the available instruments are weak, in the local-to-zero sense of Staiger and Stock (1997) and using the many-instrument framework of Morimune (1983) and Bekker...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002432934
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001848647
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001848668
We provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic bias (ABIAS) and mean squared error (AMSE) of the IV estimator, and obtain approximations thereof based on an asymptotic scheme which essentially requires the expectation of the first stage F-statistic to converge to a finite (possibly small)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001848868
This paper outlines testing procedures for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of multiple conditional distribution models. The tests that are discussed are based on either the comparison of entire conditional distributions or the comparison of predictive confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002433009