We propose the use of likelihood-ratio-based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks in parameters from time series regression models. The confidence sets are valid for the broad setting of a system of multivariate linear regression equations under fairly general assumptions about...

In this paper, we relax the assumption of constant regime-specific mean growth rates in Hamilton's (1989) two-state Markov-switching model of the business cycle. We first present a benchmark model, in which each regime-specific mean growth rate evolves according to a random walk process over...

I propose a Bayesian approach to making an inference about complicated patterns of structural breaks in time series. Structural break models in the literature are mainly considered for a simple case in which all the parameters under the structural changes are restricted to have breaks at the...

We propose an improved method for constructing likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for threshold parameters in threshold regressions. Related methods have been extensively developed in the literature and are asymptotically valid. However, their performance in finite samples is not...