We consider the extent to which different time-series models can generate simulated data with the same business cycle features that are evident in U.S. real GDP. We focus our analysis on whether multivariate linear models can improve on the previously documented failure of univariate linear...

We investigate the effects of government spending on U.S. output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We provide formal comparisons for nonlinearity in the responses of output to government spending and develop a method to compare the difference between impulse response...

We investigate the effects of government spending on U.S. economic activity using a threshold version of a structural vector autoregressive model. Our empirical findings support state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. In particular, the effects of a government spending shock on output are...

We investigate the eects of government spending on U.S. output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We consider Bayesian model comparison and generalized impulse response analysis to test for nonlinearities in the responses of output to government spending. Our empirical...