The literature on spurious regressions has found that the t-statistic for testing the null of no relationship between two independent variables diverges asymptotically under a wide variety of nonstationary data generating processes for the dependent and explanatory variables. This paper...

This paper proposes a sequential procedure to determine the common cointegration rank of panels of cointegrated VARs. It shows how a panel of cointegrated VARs can be transformed in a set of independent individual models. The likelihood function of the transformed panel is the sum of the...

This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The proposed tests...

This paper generalizes the existing cointegration analysis literature in two respects. Firstly, the problem of efficient estimation of vector error correction models containing exogenous (1) variables is examined. The asymptotic distributions of the (log- )likelihood ratio statistics for testing...

We derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests. The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable, are...

The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...

This paper introduces a new class of generalized flat-top realized kernels for estimation of quadratic variation in the presence of market microstructure noise that is allowed to exhibit a non-trivial dependence structure and to be correlated with the efficient price process. The estimators in...

This paper extends the class of generalized at-top realized kernels, introduced in Varneskov (2011), to the multivariate case, where quadratic covariation of non-synchronously observed asset prices is estimated in the presence of market microstructure noise that is allowed to exhibit serial...

This paper considers the performance of different long-memory dynamic models when forecasting volatility in the stock market using implied volatility as an exogenous variable in the information set. Observed volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components in a framework that...

In static single equation cointegration regression models the OLS estimator will have a non-standard distribution unless regressors are strictly exogenous. In the literature a number of estimators have been suggested to deal with this problem, especially by the use of semi-nonparametric...