The literature on spurious regressions has found that the t-statistic for testing the null of no relationship between two independent variables diverges asymptotically under a wide variety of nonstationary data generating processes for the dependent and explanatory variables. This paper...

This paper proposes a sequential procedure to determine the common cointegration rank of panels of cointegrated VARs. It shows how a panel of cointegrated VARs can be transformed in a set of independent individual models. The likelihood function of the transformed panel is the sum of the...

This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The proposed tests...

This paper generalizes the existing cointegration analysis literature in two respects. Firstly, the problem of efficient estimation of vector error correction models containing exogenous (1) variables is examined. The asymptotic distributions of the (log- )likelihood ratio statistics for testing...

We derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests. The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable, are...

The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...

We propose a new concept of modulated bipower variation for diffusion models with microstructure noise. We show that this method provides simple estimates for such important quantities as integrated volatility or integrated quarticity. Under mild conditions the consistency of modulated bipower...

We consider a new class of estimators for volatility functionals in the setting of frequently observed Itô diffusions which are disturbed by i.i.d. noise. These statistics extend the approach of pre-averaging as a general method for the estimation of the integrated volatility in the presence of...

In this paper we propose a test to determine whether jumps are present in a discretely sampled process or not. We use the concept of truncated power variation to construct our test statistics for (i) semimartingale models and (ii) semimartingale models with noise. The test statistics converge to...

In static single equation cointegration regression models the OLS estimator will have a non-standard distribution unless regressors are strictly exogenous. In the literature a number of estimators have been suggested to deal with this problem, especially by the use of semi-nonparametric...