The purpose of this paper is to characterize three commonly used double unit root tests in terms of their asymptotic local power. To this end, we study a class of nearly doubly integrated processes which in the limit will behave as a weighted integral of a double indexed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck...

We examine some of the consequences on commonly used unit root tests when the underlying series is integrated of order two. It turns out that standard augmented Dickey-Fuller type of tests for a single unit root have excessive density in the explosive region of the distribution. The lower...

We consider statistical inference for multivariate fractionally integrated time series models using a computationally simple conditional likelihood procedure which has recently been shown to be efficient in the univariate case. We show that those results generalize to the present multivariate...

The role of additive outliers in integrated time series has attracted some attention recently and research shows that outlier detection should be an integral part of unit root testing procedures. Recently, Vogelsang (1999) suggested an iterative procedure for the detection of multiple additive...

We propose a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models. The test statistic utilizes fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and we show that standard asymptotics apply. With i.i.d. Gaussian...

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday returns for forty large-cap stocks and an equiweighted index from these same stocks. Jumps are naturally classified into two types: common and idiosyncratic. Common jumps affect all stocks, albeit to varying...

When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low...

This paper examines the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in the random field regression model recently proposed by Hamilton (Econometrica, 2001). Though the model is parametric, it enjoys the flexibility of the nonparametric approach since it can approximate a large collection of...

In this paper a new GARCH–M type model, denoted the GARCH-AR, is proposed. In particular, it is shown that it is possible to generate a volatility-return trade-off in a regression model simply by introducing dynamics in the standardized disturbance process. Importantly, the volatility in the...

A novel estimation method for two classes of semiparametric scalar diffusion models is proposed: In the first class, the diffusion term is parameterised and the drift is left unspecified, while in the second class only the drift term is specified. Under the assumption of stationarity, the...