We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution as...

In this paper we show that the long-run stock and bond volatility and the long-run stock-bond correlation depend on macroeconomic uncertainty. We use the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) econometric approach. The findings are in accordance with the flight-to-quality phenomenon when macroeconomic...

We investigate the long-run stock-bond correlation using a novel model that combines the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling approach. The long-run correlation is affected by both macro-finance variables (historical and forecasts) and the lagged realized...

In an overlapping generations model, momentary equilibria are defined as points that lie on the intergenerational offer curve, i.e., they satisfy agents’ optimality conditions and market clearing at any date. However, some dynamic sequences commencing from such points may not be considered...

This paper discusses how international integration affects the need and scope for welfare state activities. The first part reviews the main mechanisms, which have been considered in the literature, namely, tax base mobility, risk and race to the bottom effects in welfare policies. The second...

This paper extends two optimization routines to deal with objective functions for DSGE models. The optimization routines are i) a version of Simulated Annealing developed by Corana, Marchesi & Ridella (1987), and ii) the evolutionary algorithm CMA-ES developed by Hansen, Müller & Koumoutsakos...

The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatility in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient conditions which...

This paper studies the pruned state-space system for higher-order approximations to the solutions of DSGE models. For second- and third-order approximations, we derive the statistical properties of this system and provide closed-form expressions for ?first and second unconditional moments and...

This paper argues that a specification of stochastic volatility commonly used to analyze the Great Moderation in DSGE models may not be appropriate, because the level of a process with this specification does not have conditional or unconditional moments. This is unfortunate because agents may...

Inflation may enhance the efficiency of the price system in the presence of nominal rigidities. For the price system to function efficiently there is a need for nominal prices to adjust both to real and nominal shocks for relative prices to disseminate the appropriate signals. Since the...