The GARCH framework has been used for option pricing with quite some success. While the initial work assumed conditional Gaussian innovations, recent contributions relax this assumption and allow for more flexible parametric specifications of the underlying distribution. However, until now the...

The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...

In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A major aim of our study is to find out whether they, due to their flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as...

The temporal aggregation effect on seasonal unit roots and its implications for seasonal unit root testing are discussed. The aggregation effect allows to test with any HEGY-type method for integration at the harmonic frequencies through the Nyquist frequency of properly temporally aggregated...

The paper presents a comparative study on the performance of commonly used estimators of the fractional order of integration when data is contaminated by noise. In particular, measurement errors, additive outliers, temporary change outliers, and structural change outliers are addressed. It...

We consider semiparametric estimation in time series regression in the presence of long range dependence in both the errors and the stochastic regressors. A central limit theorem is established for a class of semiparametric frequency domain weighted least squares estimates, which includes both...

In this paper consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi maximum like-lihood estimator in the level-effect ARCH model of Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (1992) is established. We consider explicitly the case where the parameters of the conditional heteroskedastic process are in the...

This paper deals with the possibility of changing persistence in European real effective exchange rates as initially analyzed by Gadea and Gracia (2009). By applying a CUSUM of squares-based test for constant versus changing persistence with desirable statistical properties, an OECD data set is...

The European integration process has removed barriers to trade within Europe. We analyze which integration step has most profoundly influenced the trending behavior of export openness. We endogenously determine the single most decisive break in the trend, account for strong cross-country...