Showing 1 - 10 of 49
This paper discusses identification problems in the fractionally cointegrated system of Johansen (2008) and Johansen and Nielsen (2012). It is shown that several equivalent re-parameterizations of the model associated with different fractional integration and cointegration parameters may exist...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011019688
Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m+k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359474
A problem encountered in, for instance, growth empirics is that the number of explanatory variables is large compared to the number of observations. This makes it infeasible to condition on all variables in order to determine the importance of a variable of interest. We prove identifying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005439950
The effects of systematic sampling and temporal aggregation on the seasonal cycle model (see Miron, 1993) and the seasonally integrated process (see Hylleberg et al., 1990) are discussed. The temporal aggregation theory is used to improve the sequential test for monthly seasonal unit roots of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440029
Forecasting using factor models based on large data sets have received ample attention due to the models’ ability to increase forecast accuracy with respect to a range of key macroeconomic variables in the US and the UK. However, forecasts based on such factor models do not uniformly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440058
In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either additive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440068
We study the skewness premium (SK) introduced by Bates (1991) in a general context using Lévy Processes. Under a symmetry condition Fajardo and Mordecki (2006) have obtained that SK is given by the Bate's x% rule. In this paper, we study SK under the absence of that symmetry condition. More...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440070
We study the dynamic relation between market risks and risk premia using time series of index option surfaces. We find that priced left tail risk cannot be spanned by market volatility (and its components) and introduce a new tail factor. This tail factor has no incremental predictive power for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099293
Counting processes provide a very flexible framework for modeling discrete events occurring over time. Estimation and interpretation is easy, and links to more familiar approaches are at hand. The key is to think of data as "event histories," a record of times of switching between states in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268023
We address the problem of selecting the common factors that are relevant for forecasting macroeconomic variables. In economic forecasting using diffusion indexes the factors are ordered, according to their importance, in terms of relative variability, and are the same for each variable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084734