Showing 1 - 10 of 60
Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010885055
A problem encountered in, for instance, growth empirics is that the number of explanatory variables is large compared to the number of observations. This makes it infeasible to condition on all variables in order to determine the importance of a variable of interest. We prove identifying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005439950
The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440004
The Pearson diffusions is a flexible class of diffusions defined by having linear drift and quadratic squared diffusion coefficient. It is demonstrated that for this class explicit statistical inference is feasible. Explicit optimal martingale estimating func- tions are found, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440039
In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either additive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440068
We study the dynamic relation between market risks and risk premia using time series of index option surfaces. We find that priced left tail risk cannot be spanned by market volatility (and its components) and introduce a new tail factor. This tail factor has no incremental predictive power for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099293
We study the short-term price behavior of Phase 2 EU emission allowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics, and we demonstrate that a standard ARMAX-GARCH framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers. To improve the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011158461
Counting processes provide a very flexible framework for modeling discrete events occurring over time. Estimation and interpretation is easy, and links to more familiar approaches are at hand. The key is to think of data as "event histories," a record of times of switching between states in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268023
The properties of dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models are still not entirely understood. This paper fills one of the gaps by deriving weak diffusion limits of a modified version of the classical DCC model. The limiting system of stochastic differential equations is characterized by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011122366
We propose a new family of easy-to-implement realized volatility based forecasting models. The models exploit the asymptotic theory for high-frequency realized volatility estimation to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. By allowing the parameters of the models to vary explicitly with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011207425