This paper shows how a standard DSGE model can be extended to reproduce the dynamics in the 10 year yield curve for the post-war US economy with a similar degree of precision as in reduced form term structure models. At the same time, we are able to reproduce the dynamics of four key macro...

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as...

In this paper we show that the long-run stock and bond volatility and the long-run stock-bond correlation depend on macroeconomic uncertainty. We use the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) econometric approach. The findings are in accordance with the flight-to-quality phenomenon when macroeconomic...

We investigate the long-run stock-bond correlation using a novel model that combines the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling approach. The long-run correlation is affected by both macro-finance variables (historical and forecasts) and the lagged realized...

We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on the factor loadings. Cubic spline functions are used to introduce smoothness in factor loadings. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this...

We show that the adaptive Lasso (aLasso) and the adaptive group Lasso (agLasso) are oracle efficient in stationary vector autoregressions where the number of parameters per equation is smaller than the number of observations. In particular, this means that the parameters are estimated...

This paper studies how non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in DSGE models approximated to second and third order. Based on an extension of the results in Schmitt-Grohé & Uribe (2004) to third order, we derive propositions for how rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH affect any...

In this work, we make use of the shifting-mean autoregressive model which is a flexible univariate nonstationary model. It is suitable for describing characteristic features in inflation series as well as for medium-term forecasting. With this model we decompose the inflation process into a...

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters’ costs of over- and...