This paper studies the local robustness of estimators and tests for the conditional location and scale parameters in a strictly stationary time series model. We first derive optimal bounded-influence estimators for such settings under a conditionally Gaussian reference model. Based on these...

We introduce the notion of realized copula. Based on assumptions of the marginal distributions of daily stock returns and a copula family, realized copula is defined as the copula structure materialized in realized covariance estimated from within-day highfrequency data. Copula parameters are...

We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework...

We propose a general robust semiparametric bootstrap method to estimate conditional predictive distributions of GARCH-type models. Our approach is based on a robust estimator for the parameters in GARCH-type models and a robustified resampling method for standardized GARCH residuals, which...

If labour market policies aimed at people with disabilities are effective, we should observe no significant difference in labour market outcomes between disable and non-disable individuals. This paper examines the impact of disability status on labour market outcomes using matching methods...

Non-random item nonreponse makes identification if parameters problematic. Such nonresponse can occur with respect to both dependent and conditioning variables. A method often used to reduce nonresponse is that of adding unfolding brackets as follow up to open-ended questions. With these,...

In this paper, the regression discontinuity design (RDD) is generalized to account for differences in observed covariates X in a fully nonparametric way. It is shown that the treatment effect can be estimated at the rate for one-dimensional nonparametric regression irrespective of the dimension...

This paper compares the inverse-probability-of-selection-weighting estimation principle with the matching principle and derives conditions for weighting and matching to identify the same and the true distribution, respectively. This comparison improves the understanding of the relation of these...

We propose a new methodology to estimate the empirical pricing kernel implied from option data. In contrast to most of the studies in the literature that use an indirect approach, i.e. first estimating the physical and risk-neutral densities and obtaining the pricing kernel in a second step, we...

We propose constructing a set of trading strategies using predicted option returns for a relatively small forecasting period of ten trading days to form profitable hold-to-expiration, equally weighted, zero-cost portfolios based on 1-month at-the-money call and put options. We use a statistical...