Evans, George; Bullard, James; Honkapohja, Seppo - Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) - 2009
We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment....