The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional...

On 21 July 2005 China adopted an undisclosed basket exchange rate regime. We formally assess and envisage the gradual evolution of the renminbi over time. We utilize nonlinear dependencies in the renminbi exchange rate and describe the smooth transition of the renminbi/U.S. dollar (RMB/USD)...

Ways of extracting financial condition indices (FCI) are explored and alternative FCIs external to the Chinese economy are constructed to model their predictive content. The exploration aims at highlighting the rich and varied dynamic features of financial variables underlying FCIs and the...

In this paper, we examine whether pre-crisis leading indicators help explain pressures on the exchange rate (and its volatility) during the global financial crisis. We use a unique data set that covers 149 countries and 58 indicators, and estimation techniques that are robust to model...

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

Utilising panel data for 14 East European transition economies, we find support for the hypothesis that a greater degree of export variety relative to the U.S. helps to explain relative per capita GDP levels. The empirical work relies upon some direct measures of product variety calculated from...

China has emerged as one of the world's leading recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI). Meanwhile, the successful transition experience of many Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) also enables them to attract an increasing share of global foreign investment, particularly from...

In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consumer economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (Russia and Canada here) benefit from oil price shocks....

This paper examines the problem of Dutch disease in Russia during the oil boom of the 2000s, from both the theoretical and empirical points of view. Our analysis is based on the classical model of Dutch disease by Corden and Neary (1982). We examine the relationship between changes in the real...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...