This paper presents preliminary results of modelling the Lithuanian block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model, LT_MCM. The theoretical structure of the LT_MCM is in line with most current mainstream macro models, i.e. supply factors determine the long-run equilibrium, while output is demand...

This paper focuses on the role of the banking sector in monetary policy transmission in an emerging economy with a rapidly developing financial system. Specifically, we exam whether the central bank's monetary policy stance affects banks' lending behaviour. Based on a comprehensive quarterly...

We apply an econometric approach developed specifically to address the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in Russian data and estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression model comprising 14 major domestic real, price and monetary macroeconomic indicators as well as external sector variables. We conduct...

The financial crisis has shown that the liquidity creation function of banks is critical for the economy. In this paper, we empirically investigate whether bank liquidity creation fosters economic growth in a large emerging market, Russia. We follow the methodology of Berger and Bouwman (2009)...

A cornerstone of the Chinese growth model has been the opening up of its economy to private competition. Some observers claim that China has changed course since joining the WTO by increasingly promoting ‘state capitalism’, the large State Owned Enterprises, thereby compromising a growth...

This paper examines past evidence of prolonged periods of reserve accumulation in Asian emerging market economies and the direct and indirect implications for monetary stability through the potential impact of such episodes on financial stability. The empirical research focuses on identifying...

In the spirit of Borio et al. (2014) we present a model that incorporates information contained in diverse variables when estimating sustainable output growth. For this purpose, we specify a state-space model representing a multivariate HP-filter that links cyclical fluctuation of GDP with...

We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset...

This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with a housing-market sector and a borrowing constraint. Contrary to standard conventions, domestic households are allowed to invest in foreign housing and vice versa. Using Bayesian methods, the model is applied to data for Hong Kong. The results...

An integrated stochastic macroeconomic model of transition economy at the early stage of reforms with optimising representative risk averse agents is constructed. The equilibrium growth rate of the economy, real asset returns, domestic money demand, and expected inflation rate are determined as...