A dynamic Tobit model with Time-varying parameters is proposed for the daily reaction function of the Open Market Desk of the US Federal Reserve. Such a model offers a more realistic depiction of the Desk's behavior than those of past contributions in the literature as it allows for both...

This paper studies a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing distributions of state variables when the underlying model is a Markov process. It is shown that the $L_1$ error of the estimator always converges to zero with probability one, and often at a parametric rate. A related technique for...

This paper describes and analyses the use of the Filtered Historical Simulation algorithm in pricing spread options. Spread options are contracts whose payoff depends on the price difference (spread) between two or more underlying assets at a future date. Such kind of options are written in the...

The main problem in the combination of volatility forecasts is that the volatility cannot be directly observed and hence loss functions such as the MSFE cannot be directly used unless a suitable proxy of the conditional variance is defined. A common approach is to use the squared returns but...