The lack of euro area labour market flexibility is a commonly mentioned issue. In particular, the relatively weak response of wages to high unemployment can pose adjustment problems. We address the issue using extensive simulations of an estimated macro-econometric model for the euro area (the...

The performance of Monte Carlo integration methods like importance-sampling or Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo procedures depends greatly on the choice of the importance- or candidate-density. Such a density must typically be "close" to the target density to yield numerically accurate results with...

This paper introduces Bayesian inference in a Markov switching partial cointegration model. The partial cointegration allows the cointegration relationships to be switched on and off depending on the regime, unlike conventional cointegration analysis that assumes linear adjustment toward...

In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB. We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of a Minimax policy comes at moderate...

In this paper we estimate a Bayesian SDGE model using the computer program "Dynare" by Michel Juillard. We present an estimated open economy version of a model for the Euro area. This is an extension of the SDGE model by Smets and Wouters (2003). Based on input/output tables we present a number...

This paper presents an estimated DSGE model for the European Monetary Union. Our approach, contrary to the previous studies, accounts for heterogeneity within the euro area. In the estimation we utilize disaggregated information, employing single country data, along with the aggregated EMU by...