Fully specified DSGE models are increasingly successful in explaining observed macroeconomic data. Thinking about the specification of a certain equation in a DSGE approach has the drawback of imposing many implicit priors on the specification of the remaining equations. Mis-specifications in...

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification...

This paper proposes a worst-case approach for estimating econometric models containing unobservable variables. Worst-case estimators are robust against the averse effects of unobservables and, unlike the classical literature, there are no assumptions made about the statistical nature of the...

Neyman and Scott define the incidental-parameter problem. In panel data with $T$ observations per individual, the estimator of the common parameter is usually constistent with O(1/T). This paper shows that the integrated likelihood estimator becomes consistent with O(1/T^2) if an...

This paper develops a general method for conducting exact small-sample inference in models which allow the estimator of the (scalar) parameter of interest to be expressed as the root of an estimating function, and which is particularly simple to implement for linear models with a covariance...

The paper revisits dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) and proposes a new way in dealing with the limitation of the classical affine models. In particular, this paper expands the flexibility of the DTSMs by applying a fractional Brownian motion as the governing force of the state variable...

Paper presents various dynamic FX rate simulation models based upon time-dependent market clearing conditions. Discussed nonlinear models follow classical concept of computer agent interactions between chartists and fundamentalists. Within each trading period agents select proper trading rules...

In this paper we use a Dynamic Factor model to retrieve vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. A stochastic simulation experiment is then used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events a®ecting a number of East Asian countries...